Sunday, November 04, 2007

Barron's Summary (DWA, CROX, NTRS, KCP, DPTR, MAT)

Barron’s cover discusses economic and stock mkt outlook. Many expect the Dow Jones to reach 15,000 next year. Managers favor QQQQ, CSCO, MSFT, AAPL, GOOG and INTC. Many managers also consider certain highflying tech stocks, including GOOG, AAPL, AMZN and BIDU, among the mkt's most overvalued issues. "Sooner or later, there will be nobody left to buy these shares," one money manager warns. One stock that could benefit from the shift to big-cap growth is General Electric (GE), also among the managers' favorites. Also favored is HOG and WTM.

Fund manager likes CSCO, AKAM, RIMM, AMZN, MDR, MRK and GILD. Another fund holdings include LMT, MO, BAC, ALL, XOM, C, TOT, MET, JNJ and GS.

The shares of Mattel (MAT), at about 21, are near their 52-week low. But they could jump to 30 over the next 12 months as the crisis recedes. Caveat: If there's another big recall, all bets are off.

Delta Petroleum (DPTR) can ill afford to disappoint investors. If it does, its stock, already off this year but still at a premium to its peers, soon could slide another 20% or more.

Kenneth Cole (KCP) stock, recently at a four-year low of 18, could shoot to 50 on new sportswear. "The stock and the company have endured much pain, but the stars are aligning," says Shawn Kravetz, of Esplanade Capital.

With sales and earnings climbing briskly, the ascent of Northern Trust’s (NTRS) stock looks far from over. The shares easily could tack on 10% or more annually in the coming years.

“The Trader” section discusses Crocs (CROX), saying that that demand for the low-priced kicks still appears strong. But Crocs and their ilk have all the markings of a fad, and fads eventually end. The mad dash for the exits shows the fancy footwork required of the co to meet increasingly high expectations. Christopher Williams thinks its shares will hit the high 30s much faster than fans expect.

“The Trader” also highlights DreamWorks (DWA), whose Bee Movie opened Fri on nearly 4K screens. Analysts expect the film to rake in $30-40m over the weekend on its way to a domestic box-office haul topping $150m. The buzz isn't the only reason to like DreamWorks' stock. Another hit to add to a string that already includes the money-minting Shrek franchise will help the studio establish a reputation for consistency in a lumpy business. That could help it achieve a richer stock price. Just last week, the co reported a 5-fold increase in 3Q profits, boosted by Shrek the Third, whose home-DVD sales will drive earnings this qrtr while Bee earns back its upfront costs. BofA analyst Michael Savner expects Bee to gross $40m during the weekend, and $175m overall in the US. "If Bee Movie hits our forecast, DreamWorks should realize nearly $310m in net rev and $130m in gross profits over the film's life," he notes. Such tgts might even prove conservative. Also helping Bee is the early-Nov release -- just in time for kids who have settled back in school to start prowling for distractions. DWA trades for 14.4x ‘07 earnings, compared with 15.1x for the leisure-products group, even though its net profit margin of 27% far outstrips the group's 6%. While takeover talk has grown far less animated these days, the co's strong cash flow, healthy balance sheet and an 11% debt-to-capital ratio all add up to an appealing picture.

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